The Tropics have been relatively quiet for the past few weeks, but it appears that we are now experiencing a resurgence in tropical activity.
As of now, our team is carefully tracking two disturbances in the open Atlantic. The first disturbance is currently causing some concern, with a secondary disturbance trailing behind it. Both of these are moving towards the Lesser Antilles, and we are keeping a close eye on their progress.
According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, there is a 40% likelihood of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days.
Currently, the forecast for the development and strength of the weather system, as well as its potential track, is uncertain and lacks confidence. The models being used to predict these factors are exhibiting significant divergence, making it challenging to provide a definitive forecast.
This system is being tracked as one of our more reliable models, and it is currently moving as an open wave toward the Gulf of Mexico.
One possible outcome could be an increase in moisture in South Florida. However, a more dependable model suggests a more potent and well-formed system moving towards the Bahamas and the eastern coast of Florida. This system could potentially intensify further as it approaches Cape Hatteras.
It’s difficult to predict the path of the system as there is a lot of variability in its potential strength. It could miss the south or east, or any other direction. Therefore, it’s still too early to determine its exact trajectory.
South Florida should remain vigilant and monitor the development of the system in the upcoming days. It is uncertain what the system will evolve into, but it is not expected to reach the mainland United States until the following weekend.